Scottish Elections 2021: How Likely is Independence?
I want to be up front with you before I dive into Scottish politics. I am an ardent Scottish nationalist. This means I advocate for an independent Scotland outside the United Kingdom, able to chart it’s own destiny in the world. Uniquely, I also want Scotland to be outside the European Union contrary to most nationalist parties in Scotland. I dive into my ideas about Euro-skeptic Scottish nationalism in another article, but I want to do a brief primer for Americans who may be interested in Scottish politics but have no idea what’s going on. I preface it with my beliefs because I want to be honest and will try write an apolitical article as best I can.
The question in my title asks, “how likely is independence?” That, unfortunately, is a question I cannot give a definitive answer to. The reason being that independence requires multiple things to happen, some more likely than others. I’ll dive into this by laying out what I think is very likely to happen, what could happen but requires some explanation, and what is unlikely to happen.
Likely to Happen
The first thing that needs to happen is for pro-independence parties in Scotland to win election and introduce a proposal for a second independence referendum. I see this happening as “very likely” based on opinion polling on both independence and the pro-independence parties. The Scottish National Party, the main political force advocating for independence, has polled around 50% for the past year with a clear lead over other parties. This is very powerful given Scotland’s unique voting method that actively discourages absolute majorities to be elected and usually forces coalition governments. Contrary the system’s design, the SNP has been able to largely avoid needing coalitions where it received 69 seats in 2011 (they needed 65 seats for a majority) and had 63 seats in the 2016 election and was able to form a minority government. Polling shows that the SNP could be on track to gain an absolute majority again, but new parties could derail them.
There are several other pro-independence parties that make this election interesting. The other main pro-independence party with representation are the Scottish Greens who gain seats from the regional constituency votes (see the above link on voting method for more info). They have supported the SNP on several issues about Scottish independence and acquiring more powers for the Scottish parliament. I see them as the most likely partner for the SNP if another independence referendum is voted on.
The next pro-independence party is a recent addition i.e. it started only this year. The Alba Party (pronounced All-ah-pah if you want the Gaelic pronunciation) was started in February of 2021 with the goal of targeting the regional seats. This means it will not run in the constituencies in order to help maximize the votes for pro-independence parties (again, see my link on the voting method above, it will make a lot more sense if you’ve watched it). Since it’s a new party it has not had an opportunity to run in an election and will be starting from scratch. This is added to the fact that the Alba party is run by previous SNP leader Alex Salmond who is fighting the current leader of the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon, and has drawn away defectors from the SNP. This is a very dramatic fight which I will not get into here but will post a link if you want to know the background behind it.
It will be very interesting to see how the introduction of the Alba Party in the mix will affect the outcome of the election. A recent poll shows Alba outperforming the Scottish Liberal Democrats and taking regional votes from the SNP, a significant sign that Alba may be tapping into voters that are critical of the SNP and other parties, but still pro-independence. I see this as an actual benefit for the independence movement only if Alba targets the regional seats and becomes a minor player like the Scottish Greens. Suffice it to say, I see a pro-independence majority winning the election.
Could Happen
The other piece to this puzzle is economic. If the pro-independence parties are able to maintain a majority in the parliament then they will need to convince the Scottish people that independence is the right thing to do. Opinion polls show that they don’t have to do much work, but that could change on a dime if we see another independence referendum. Pro-independence parties need to be able to draft effective arguments for independence which primarily rely on economics showing Scotland can be prosperous after independence. In my opinion, this has been largely ineffective where unionist parties have better arguments and why I put economic arguments by nationalist parties for independence as “could happen.”
Economics plays a key factor in how Scots will vote in a future independence referendum because that’s what drove a lot of people to vote against independence in 2014. Questions on whether Scotland would keep an open border with the UK, have to create a new currency, or if they would be able to join the EU all played a role. These question still linger into 2021 which I dive into more here and here.
If these economic questions have good answers backed by pro-independence parties, then I would say independence is more likely. However, it is still a very tricky situation because a lot of these questions have been left unanswered by pro-independence groups and argued effectively by unionist parties. This is why I put economic arguments convincing Scotland under “could happen.” Only if the SNP, Alba, and other independence parties can satisfy the economic questions poised by the Scottish people can they make a more effective push for independence.
Unlikely to Happen
The last thing I will touch on is whether the UK government will allow Scotland to have another referendum on independence. Just like for the 2014 referendum, the Scottish must formally submit a petition to hold an independence referendum to the British government for approval. With the last referendum happening only 7 years ago, I find it highly unlikely that the British government would approve another referendum after the last one was sold as a “once in a generation” vote.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has stated that he would not approve another referendum, citing that it would be a serious misstep with the current COVID pandemic ongoing. If the SNP is able to garner support AND have a proposal for a referendum rejected, they could hold one unofficially. This has been tried in the past. Not in Scotland, but in Catalonia.
Catalonia and Scotland are sisters of circumstance. Both countries have very strong independence movements, both have had independence referendums, and both are still a part of their parent states. Catalonia took the step to hold an unsanctioned referendum in 2017 that the central government in Madrid vehemently opposed. The drama that unfolded led to violence on polling day with federal police seizing ballot boxes, pro-independence leaders being arrested and tried for sedition, and the pro-independence president of Catalonia fleeing to Belgium to escape arrest.
I doubt Scotland will try the same based on rhetoric from the SNP and the history of Catalonia’s referendum, but the SNP will still be a thorn in the side of any British Prime Minister with constant requests for a referendum.
I am excited to see which direction Scotland takes on election day on May 6th. I will be watching the results very closely, most likely with a dram Scotch at hand.
For more information and if you love maps, check out my visualization at the link below to explore the 2011 and 2016 election results.
